Combat Edge Intelligence

Nicolaj Wagner vs Roggers Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-4-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
-Reach79"
249 lbsWeight265 lbs
TBDTeamAlcateia MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+23→ 1555
If they lose-25→ 1507
Roggers SouzaNow 1523
If they win+16→ 1539
If they lose-16→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Nicolaj WagnerRoggers Souza
150015501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (100%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (27%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner60%
Roggers Souza 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 60% favorite over Roggers Souza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1523), separated by just 9 points.

Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.