Nicolaj Wagner vs Sean Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Sean Alvarez
Elo1528AverageTale of the tape
5-4-0Record4-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight235 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1554
If they lose-24→ 1506
If they win+24→ 1552
If they lose-24→ 1504
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nicolaj WagnerSean Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolaj Wagner58%
Sean Alvarez 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 58% favorite over Sean Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1530 vs 1528), separated by just 2 points.
Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sean Alvarez 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.