Nicolaj Wagner vs Virgil Zwicker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record17-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight236 lbs
TeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1555
If they lose-25→ 1507
If they win+25→ 1546
If they lose-23→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nicolaj WagnerVirgil Zwicker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolaj Wagner66%
Virgil Zwicker 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 66% favorite over Virgil Zwicker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1521), separated by just 11 points.
Virgil Zwicker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Virgil Zwicker 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.