Combat Edge Intelligence

Nicolas Dalby vs Pawel Pawlak

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Nicolas Dalby
dk

Nicolas Dalby

“Danish Dynamite”

24-6-1WelterweightUFC

1729Good

Tale of the tape

24-6-1Record23-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight185 lbs
Rumble SportsTeamOctopus Lodz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nicolas DalbyNow 1729
If they win+12→ 1741
If they lose-12→ 1717
Pawel PawlakNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.88
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
44%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
52%
Strike defense
54%
0.90
Takedown avg.
1
27%
Takedown accuracy
38%
59%
Takedown defense
70%
0.08
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Nicolas DalbyPawel Pawlak
170017502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (29%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
4 (17%)
Submission
3 (13%)
13 (54%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Pawel Pawlak56%
Nicolas Dalby 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Pawel Pawlak a 56% favorite over Nicolas Dalby in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1729 vs 1732), separated by just 3 points.

Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Nicolas Dalby finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Pawlak 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.