Nicolas Dalby vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-1Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach72,0"
171 lbsWeight186 lbs
Rumble SportsTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Nicolas Dalby is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1738
If they lose-15→ 1714
If they win+21→ 1646
If they lose-11→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nicolas DalbyWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolas Dalby75%
Warlley Alves 25%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolas Dalby a 75% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Nicolas Dalby holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1625, a 104-point edge.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Nicolas Dalby finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Nicolas Dalby and Warlley Alves share 1 common opponent: Randy Brown.
Nicolas Dalby carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.