Nik Lentz vs Omar El Dafrawy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-12-2Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamSoma Fight Club· 1633 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
If they win+17→ 1676
If they lose-15→ 1644
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nik LentzOmar El Dafrawy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Omar El Dafrawy66%
Nik Lentz 34%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Omar El Dafrawy a 66% favorite over Nik Lentz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nik Lentz's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1659), separated by just 11 points.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Omar El Dafrawy enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nik Lentz finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Omar El Dafrawy 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.