Nik Lentz vs Rafaello Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-12-2Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAMA Fight Club
What's at stake
Nik Lentz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
If they win+19→ 1620
If they lose-13→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nik LentzRafaello Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Lentz72%
Rafaello Oliveira 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 72% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Nik Lentz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1601, a 69-point edge.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nik Lentz finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.