Combat Edge Intelligence

Nik Lentz vs Waylon Lowe

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Nik Lentz
us

Nik Lentz

“The Carny”

30-12-2LightweightUFC

1670Good

Tale of the tape

30-12-2Record16-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTBD

What's at stake

Nik Lentz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Waylon Lowe carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nik LentzNow 1670
If they win+9→ 1679
If they lose-15→ 1655
Waylon LoweNow 1571
If they win+31→ 1602
If they lose-17→ 1554

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
1.92
48%
Strike accuracy
56%
3.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
50%
Strike defense
53%
3.30
Takedown avg.
4.58
33%
Takedown accuracy
52%
44%
Takedown defense
83%
1.24
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Nik LentzWaylon Lowe
1500155016001650170020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

11 (37%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
8 (27%)
Submission
3 (19%)
11 (37%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Nik Lentz61%
Waylon Lowe 39%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 61% favorite over Waylon Lowe in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Nik Lentz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1571, a 99-point edge.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Nik Lentz finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Waylon Lowe 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.