Niklas Stolze vs Shannon Gugerty
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record15-7-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight145 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamVictory MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1542
If they lose-16→ 1510
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Niklas StolzeShannon Gugerty
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Niklas Stolze54%
Shannon Gugerty 46%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Niklas Stolze a 54% favorite over Shannon Gugerty in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shannon Gugerty's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1526 vs 1535), separated by just 9 points.
Niklas Stolze enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Niklas Stolze finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Shannon Gugerty 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.