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Combat Edge Intelligence

Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino Riva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record6-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 14 ratedTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Niko CeragliaNow 1545
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521
Valentino RivaNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
Not available
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Niko CeragliaValentino Riva
15001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
1 (33%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (33%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Niko Ceraglia51%
Valentino Riva 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Niko Ceraglia a 51% favorite over Valentino Riva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Valentino Riva's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1545 vs 1548), separated by just 3 points.

Niko Ceraglia finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Valentino Riva 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.