Nikolas Motta vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'2"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Nikolas Motta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1662
If they lose-12→ 1630
If they win+12→ 1738
If they lose-20→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nikolas MottaTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan86%
Nikolas Motta 14%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 86% favorite over Nikolas Motta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1726 to 1642, a 84-point edge.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Nikolas Motta finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Tom Nolan carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.