Nikolas Motta vs Trey Ogden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamMarathon MMA
What's at stake
Trey Ogden is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nikolas Motta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1659
If they lose-15→ 1627
If they win+15→ 1681
If they lose-17→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nikolas MottaTrey Ogden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nikolas Motta60%
Trey Ogden 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Nikolas Motta a 60% favorite over Trey Ogden in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Trey Ogden's way (47%).
Trey Ogden holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1642, a 24-point edge.
Nikolas Motta finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.
Trey Ogden carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.