Nilton Gavião vs Ollie Schmid
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record4-3-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
-Reach71"
151 lbsWeight145 lbs
Sombra TeamTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nilton GaviãoOllie Schmid
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ollie Schmid53%
Nilton Gavião 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ollie Schmid a 53% favorite over Nilton Gavião in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1534 vs 1535), separated by just 1 points.
Nilton Gavião enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nilton Gavião finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Ollie Schmid 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.