Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Paddy Pimblett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70,5"Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
H2O MMATeamNext Generation UK
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1806
If they lose-12→ 1782
If they win+12→ 1807
If they lose-12→ 1783
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Olivier Aubin-MercierPaddy Pimblett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paddy Pimblett66%
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 66% favorite over Olivier Aubin-Mercier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1794 vs 1795), separated by just 1 points.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 75%.
Paddy Pimblett carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.