Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record17-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70,5"Reach41,5"
155 lbsWeight158 lbs
H2O MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thibault Gouti carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1801
If they lose-17→ 1777
If they win+22→ 1673
If they lose-10→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Olivier Aubin-MercierThibault Gouti
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Olivier Aubin-Mercier88%
Thibault Gouti 12%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 88% favorite over Thibault Gouti in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1651, a 143-point edge.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Thibault Gouti 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.