Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Tony Sims
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record12-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70,5"Reach42,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
H2O MMATeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tony Sims carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1801
If they lose-17→ 1777
If they win+22→ 1671
If they lose-10→ 1639
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Olivier Aubin-MercierTony Sims
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Olivier Aubin-Mercier84%
Tony Sims 16%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 84% favorite over Tony Sims in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1649, a 145-point edge.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Tony Sims enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tony Sims 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.