Omari Akhmedov vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-8-1Record14-7-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Omari Akhmedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Sergio Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1724
If they lose-15→ 1700
If they win+19→ 1660
If they lose-13→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Omari AkhmedovSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Omari Akhmedov78%
Sergio Moraes 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Omari Akhmedov a 78% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Omari Akhmedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1641, a 74-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Omari Akhmedov finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.