Osimkhon Rakhmonov vs Vince Morales
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Vince Morales66%
Osimkhon Rakhmonov 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Vince Morales a 66% favorite over Osimkhon Rakhmonov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Osimkhon Rakhmonov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1620), separated by just 0 points.
Vince Morales enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Osimkhon Rakhmonov finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Vince Morales 75%.
Vince Morales carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record16-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
65.4"Reach70"
137 lbsWeight136 lbs
TeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1636
If they lose-16→ 1604
If they win+12→ 1632
If they lose-12→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Osimkhon RakhmonovVince Morales