Combat Edge Intelligence

Ottman Azaitar vs Teemu Packalen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-0Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'1"
71"Reach75,5"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jupps Fight TeamTeamFinnfighters' Gym

What's at stake

Ottman Azaitar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Teemu Packalen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ottman AzaitarNow 1664
If they win+14→ 1678
If they lose-18→ 1646
Teemu PackalenNow 1610
If they win+18→ 1628
If they lose-14→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.73
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
52%
Strike accuracy
54%
4.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.91
48%
Strike defense
48%
0
Takedown avg.
2.31
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
100%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.54

Trajectory

Ottman AzaitarTeemu Packalen
1600165017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (77%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
2 (15%)
Submission
6 (75%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ottman Azaitar57%
Teemu Packalen 43%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Ottman Azaitar a 57% favorite over Teemu Packalen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Ottman Azaitar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1610, a 54-point edge.

Ottman Azaitar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Teemu Packalen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ottman Azaitar finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Teemu Packalen 100%.

Teemu Packalen carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.