Ovince St. Preux vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-18-0Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
80″Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Knoxville MMATeamTeam Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Ovince St. Preux is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafael Cavalcante carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1687
If they lose-14→ 1663
If they win+18→ 1649
If they lose-14→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ovince St. PreuxRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ovince St. Preux67%
Rafael Cavalcante 33%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Ovince St. Preux a 67% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Ovince St. Preux holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1677 to 1631, a 46-point edge.
Ovince St. Preux finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.