Combat Edge Intelligence

Paddy Holohan vs Vaughan Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-2-1Record14-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
39.00ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamUTC Birmingham

What's at stake

Paddy Holohan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Vaughan Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Paddy HolohanNow 1551
If they win+21→ 1572
If they lose-27→ 1524
Vaughan LeeNow 1507
If they win+14→ 1521
If they lose-10→ 1497

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.13
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
46%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
46%
Strike defense
70%
2.88
Takedown avg.
0.81
48%
Takedown accuracy
33%
71%
Takedown defense
72%
1.31
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Paddy HolohanVaughan Lee
150015502015201620172018

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
8 (67%)
Submission
7 (50%)
3 (25%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Paddy Holohan75%
Vaughan Lee 25%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Holohan a 75% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Paddy Holohan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1551 to 1507, a 44-point edge.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Paddy Holohan finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.