Paddy Pimblett vs Rodrigo Vargas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
24-4-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Next Generation UKTeamMexican Pride Gym
What's at stake
Paddy Pimblett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Rodrigo Vargas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1802
If they lose-17→ 1778
If they win+23→ 1648
If they lose-9→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paddy PimblettRodrigo Vargas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paddy Pimblett92%
Rodrigo Vargas 8%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 92% favorite over Rodrigo Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Paddy Pimblett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1795 to 1625, a 170-point edge.
Rodrigo Vargas enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Paddy Pimblett finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Vargas 88%.
Paddy Pimblett carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.