Combat Edge Intelligence

Paige VanZant vs Rachael Ostovich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-5-0Record4-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'3"
65"Reach38,5"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra PortlandTeamJesus Is Lord

What's at stake

Paige VanZant is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rachael Ostovich carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Paige VanZantNow 1574
If they win+11→ 1585
If they lose-21→ 1553
Rachael OstovichNow 1456
If they win+21→ 1477
If they lose-11→ 1445

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
52%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.97
43%
Strike defense
58%
1.27
Takedown avg.
2.03
33%
Takedown accuracy
83%
34%
Takedown defense
67%
0.96
Submission avg.
0.81

Trajectory

Paige VanZantRachael Ostovich
1450150015501600201820192020

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
3 (38%)
Submission
2 (50%)
3 (38%)
Decision
2 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Paige VanZant78%
Rachael Ostovich 22%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Paige VanZant a 78% favorite over Rachael Ostovich in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Paige VanZant holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1574 to 1456, a 118-point edge.

Rachael Ostovich enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Paige VanZant finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Rachael Ostovich 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.