Combat Edge Intelligence

Papy Abedi vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Papy Abedi
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Papy Abedi

“Makambo”

10-4-0MiddleweightSC

1566Solid

Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record23-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Papy AbediNow 1566
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.80
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
55%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
49%
Strike defense
63%
3.47
Takedown avg.
0.71
57%
Takedown accuracy
61%
50%
Takedown defense
63%
1.30
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Papy AbediThiago Alves
15501600201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
2 (20%)
Submission
1 (4%)
2 (20%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Alves51%
Papy Abedi 49%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Alves a 51% favorite over Papy Abedi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1572), separated by just 6 points.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Papy Abedi finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.