Combat Edge Intelligence

Pat Sabatini vs Tristan Connelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-0Record14-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamRyan's MMA - Checkmat Vancouver

What's at stake

Pat Sabatini is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tristan Connelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Pat SabatiniNow 1764
If they win+7→ 1771
If they lose-17→ 1747
Tristan ConnellyNow 1598
If they win+23→ 1621
If they lose-9→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1703 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.69
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
60%
Strike accuracy
51%
1.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.96
51%
Strike defense
51%
4.48
Takedown avg.
0.33
51%
Takedown accuracy
14%
50%
Takedown defense
60%
1.49
Submission avg.
0.33

Trajectory

Pat SabatiniTristan Connelly
160016501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
12 (55%)
Submission
9 (64%)
8 (36%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Pat Sabatini92%
Tristan Connelly 8%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Pat Sabatini a 92% favorite over Tristan Connelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Pat Sabatini holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1764 to 1598, a 166-point edge.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tristan Connelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Pat Sabatini finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Tristan Connelly 93%.

Pat Sabatini carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.