Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-5-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Renzo Gracie PhillyTeamGround Control
What's at stake
Pat Sabatini is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tucker Lutz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1746
If they win+21→ 1666
If they lose-11→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Pat SabatiniTucker Lutz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pat Sabatini71%
Tucker Lutz 29%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Pat Sabatini a 71% favorite over Tucker Lutz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Pat Sabatini holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1762 to 1645, a 117-point edge.
Pat Sabatini enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Pat Sabatini finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Tucker Lutz 67%.
Tucker Lutz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.