Patrick Cummins vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-7-0Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Reign MMATeamTeam Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Rafael Cavalcante is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Patrick Cummins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1619
If they lose-15→ 1587
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-17→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Patrick CumminsRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Cummins57%
Rafael Cavalcante 43%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Cummins a 57% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Cavalcante's way (46%).
Rafael Cavalcante holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1602, a 29-point edge.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Patrick Cummins finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Patrick Cummins and Rafael Cavalcante share 1 common opponent: Ovince St. Preux.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.