Patrick Cummins vs Rafael Xavier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-7-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Reign MMATeamSayyato Performance Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1618
If they lose-16→ 1586
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Patrick CumminsRafael Xavier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Cummins54%
Rafael Xavier 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Cummins a 54% favorite over Rafael Xavier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Xavier's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1602 vs 1603), separated by just 1 points.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Patrick Cummins finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Xavier 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.