Patrick Cummins vs Roger Narvaez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-7-0Record8-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Reign MMATeamFull Contact Fight Academy
What's at stake
Patrick Cummins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Roger Narvaez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1617
If they lose-17→ 1585
If they win+17→ 1590
If they lose-15→ 1558
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Patrick CumminsRoger Narvaez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roger Narvaez56%
Patrick Cummins 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Roger Narvaez a 56% favorite over Patrick Cummins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patrick Cummins's way (46%).
Patrick Cummins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1573, a 29-point edge.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roger Narvaez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Cummins finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Roger Narvaez 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.