Patrick Smith vs Royce Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
20-17-0Record15-2-3
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach--
225 lbsWeight176 lbs
TeamGracie Humaita
What's at stake
Royce Gracie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Patrick Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1521
If they lose-5→ 1497
If they win+7→ 1732
If they lose-25→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Patrick SmithRoyce Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Royce Gracie81%
Patrick Smith 19%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Royce Gracie a 81% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Royce Gracie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1502, a 223-point edge.
Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Royce Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Patrick Smith finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Royce Gracie 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.