Combat Edge Intelligence

Patrick Smith vs Sascha Weinpolter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-17-0Record14-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
225 lbsWeight240 lbs
TBDTeamIron Fist Gym

What's at stake

Sascha Weinpolter is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Patrick Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Patrick SmithNow 1484
If they win+13→ 1497
If they lose-11→ 1473
Sascha WeinpolterNow 1509
If they win+22→ 1531
If they lose-26→ 1483

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Patrick SmithSascha Weinpolter
150020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (65%)
KO/TKO
13 (93%)
6 (30%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (5%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sascha Weinpolter88%
Patrick Smith 12%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Sascha Weinpolter a 88% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Sascha Weinpolter holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1509 to 1484, a 25-point edge.

Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Patrick Smith finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Sascha Weinpolter 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.