Combat Edge Intelligence

Patrick Williams vs Tom Duquesnoy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-6-0Record16-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
73,0"Reach37,5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
IndependentTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Tom Duquesnoy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Patrick Williams carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Patrick WilliamsNow 1560
If they win+23→ 1583
If they lose-9→ 1551
Tom DuquesnoyNow 1710
If they win+9→ 1719
If they lose-23→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.12
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
52%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.30
52%
Strike defense
63%
2.71
Takedown avg.
0.42
42%
Takedown accuracy
25%
100%
Takedown defense
47%
0.54
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Patrick WilliamsTom Duquesnoy
1550160016501700201620172018

Win method breakdown

4 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
3 (38%)
Submission
4 (25%)
1 (13%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Duquesnoy84%
Patrick Williams 16%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Duquesnoy a 84% favorite over Patrick Williams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Tom Duquesnoy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1560, a 150-point edge.

Patrick Williams enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Patrick Williams finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tom Duquesnoy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.