Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-1Record13-3-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Scottish Hit SquadTeamKnockout Squad
What's at stake
Rodolfo Bellato is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651
If they win+15→ 1693
If they lose-17→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul CraigRodolfo Bellato
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rodolfo Bellato70%
Paul Craig 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodolfo Bellato a 70% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Rodolfo Bellato holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1662, a 16-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rodolfo Bellato 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.