Paul Craig vs Tyson Pedro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-1Record10-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Paul Craig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tyson Pedro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1673
If they lose-14→ 1649
If they win+19→ 1612
If they lose-13→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Paul CraigTyson Pedro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Craig67%
Tyson Pedro 33%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Craig a 67% favorite over Tyson Pedro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Paul Craig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1593, a 70-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tyson Pedro enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tyson Pedro 100%.
Paul Craig and Tyson Pedro share 2 common opponents: Modestas Bukauskas and Maurício Rua.
Tyson Pedro carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.