Paul Craig vs Vinicius Moreira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-1Record12-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
76"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Scottish Hit SquadTeamFive Rounds
What's at stake
Paul Craig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Vinicius Moreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1671
If they lose-15→ 1647
If they win+20→ 1586
If they lose-12→ 1554
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul CraigVinicius Moreira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Craig61%
Vinicius Moreira 39%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Craig a 61% favorite over Vinicius Moreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Paul Craig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1566, a 96-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paul Craig finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Vinicius Moreira 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.