Paul Hughes vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
159 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Academy IrelandTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1729
If they lose-16→ 1697
If they win+12→ 1725
If they lose-12→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul HughesRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Hughes71%
Rafael dos Anjos 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Hughes a 71% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1713 vs 1713), separated by just 0 points.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Paul Hughes finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.