Paul Kelly vs TJ O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team KaobonTeamDes Moines Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Paul Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — TJ O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1546
If they lose-20→ 1514
If they win+29→ 1484
If they lose-19→ 1436
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul KellyTJ O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paul Kelly61%
TJ O'Brien 39%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Kelly a 61% favorite over TJ O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Paul Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1534 to 1455, a 79-point edge.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ O'Brien enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paul Kelly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, TJ O'Brien 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.