Combat Edge Intelligence

Paul Kelly vs Troy Mandaloniz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Paul Kelly
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Paul Kelly

“Tellys”

15-5-0WelterweightPMMA

1535Average

Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team KaobonTeam

What's at stake

Paul Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Troy Mandaloniz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Paul KellyNow 1535
If they win+15→ 1550
If they lose-17→ 1518
Troy MandalonizNow 1512
If they win+26→ 1538
If they lose-22→ 1490

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.52
38%
Strike accuracy
57%
2.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.71
60%
Strike defense
63%
1.34
Takedown avg.
3.10
60%
Takedown accuracy
67%
31%
Takedown defense
57%
1.49
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Paul KellyTroy Mandaloniz
15001550200720082009201020112012

Win method breakdown

8 (53%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
4 (27%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (20%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Paul Kelly56%
Troy Mandaloniz 44%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Paul Kelly a 56% favorite over Troy Mandaloniz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Paul Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1535 to 1512, a 23-point edge.

Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Paul Kelly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Troy Mandaloniz 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.