Paul Kelly vs Yazid Chouchane
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record11-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach68"
169 lbsWeight156 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519
If they win+16→ 1549
If they lose-16→ 1517
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul KellyYazid Chouchane
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yazid Chouchane63%
Paul Kelly 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Yazid Chouchane a 63% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Kelly's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1533), separated by just 2 points.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paul Kelly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Yazid Chouchane 18%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.