Paulo Costa vs Sean Strickland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record31-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
72"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team BorrachaTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Paulo Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1773
If they lose-13→ 1741
If they win+10→ 1833
If they lose-14→ 1809
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1742 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaSean Strickland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Strickland60%
Paulo Costa 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 60% favorite over Paulo Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1754, a 69-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.
Paulo Costa and Sean Strickland share 1 common opponent: Israel Adesanya.
Sean Strickland carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.