Paulo Costa vs Yoel Romero
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record16-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height5'10"
72"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team BorrachaTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Yoel Romero carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1769
If they lose-17→ 1737
If they win+17→ 1748
If they lose-15→ 1716
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaYoel Romero
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa72%
Yoel Romero 28%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 72% favorite over Yoel Romero in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1731, a 23-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Yoel Romero 81%.
Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero share 3 common opponents: Robert Whittaker, Luke Rockhold and Israel Adesanya.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.