Paulo Santos vs Rafael Freitas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-3-0Record3-6-0
TBDDivisionTBD
TBDHeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
TBDWeightTBD
TeamViktor Gym
What's at stake
Rafael Freitas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Paulo Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1466
If they lose-22→ 1418
If they win+22→ 1491
If they lose-26→ 1443
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1487 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Paulo SantosRafael Freitas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Freitas54%
Paulo Santos 46%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Freitas a 54% favorite over Paulo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Rafael Freitas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1469 to 1440, a 29-point edge.
Paulo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael Freitas enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Freitas 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.