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Combat Edge Intelligence

Paulo Santos vs Reza Nazri

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

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What's at stake

Reza Nazri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Paulo Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Paulo SantosNow 1440
If they win+26→ 1466
If they lose-22→ 1418
Reza NazriNow 1471
If they win+22→ 1493
If they lose-26→ 1445

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1487 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

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Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Paulo SantosReza Nazri
14501500199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Combat Edge model read

Reza Nazri67%
Paulo Santos 33%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Reza Nazri a 67% favorite over Paulo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Reza Nazri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1440, a 31-point edge.

Paulo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.