Paulo Thiago vs Sean Spencer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record12-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
TBDReach75,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
X-GymTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1607
If they lose-12→ 1583
If they win+17→ 1598
If they lose-15→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo ThiagoSean Spencer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean Spencer56%
Paulo Thiago 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean Spencer a 56% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paulo Thiago's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1581), separated by just 14 points.
Sean Spencer enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paulo Thiago finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Sean Spencer 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.