Paulo Thiago vs Siyar Bahadurzada
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-0Record24-8-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach72,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
X-GymTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Siyar Bahadurzada is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1610
If they lose-9→ 1586
If they win+9→ 1702
If they lose-15→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo ThiagoSiyar Bahadurzada
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Siyar Bahadurzada80%
Paulo Thiago 20%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Siyar Bahadurzada a 80% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Siyar Bahadurzada holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1595, a 98-point edge.
Siyar Bahadurzada enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paulo Thiago finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Siyar Bahadurzada 83%.
Paulo Thiago and Siyar Bahadurzada share 1 common opponent: Brandon Thatch.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.