Combat Edge Intelligence

Pawel Pawlak vs Peter Sobotta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

23-4-1Record17-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Octopus LodzTeamPlanet Eater

What's at stake

Pawel Pawlak is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Peter Sobotta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Pawel PawlakNow 1732
If they win+9→ 1741
If they lose-15→ 1717
Peter SobottaNow 1652
If they win+15→ 1667
If they lose-9→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
34%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
54%
Strike defense
59%
1
Takedown avg.
1.53
38%
Takedown accuracy
32%
70%
Takedown defense
78%
0
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Pawel PawlakPeter Sobotta
16501700175020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

11 (48%)
KO/TKO
5 (29%)
3 (13%)
Submission
10 (59%)
9 (39%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Pawel Pawlak78%
Peter Sobotta 22%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Pawel Pawlak a 78% favorite over Peter Sobotta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Pawel Pawlak holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1652, a 80-point edge.

Pawel Pawlak enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Peter Sobotta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Pawel Pawlak finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Peter Sobotta 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.