Combat Edge Intelligence

Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record22-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Reno Academy of CombatTeamLaerte Barcelos Team

What's at stake

Raoni Barcelos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Payton Talbott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Payton TalbottNow 1742
If they win+18→ 1760
If they lose-14→ 1728
Raoni BarcelosNow 1780
If they win+14→ 1794
If they lose-18→ 1762

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1708 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.05
Sig. strikes / min
4.92
55%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
46%
Strike defense
61%
0.24
Takedown avg.
2.22
25%
Takedown accuracy
31%
77%
Takedown defense
88%
0.24
Submission avg.
0.58

Trajectory

Payton TalbottRaoni Barcelos
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
8 (36%)
1 (9%)
Submission
3 (14%)
3 (27%)
Decision
11 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Raoni Barcelos52%
Payton Talbott 48%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Raoni Barcelos a 52% favorite over Payton Talbott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Raoni Barcelos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1780 to 1742, a 38-point edge.

Payton Talbott enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Payton Talbott finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Raoni Barcelos 50%.

Payton Talbott carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.