Combat Edge Intelligence

Payton Talbott vs Rei Tsuruya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record11-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight126 lbs
Reno Academy of CombatTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1684 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Payton TalbottNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726
Rei TsuruyaNow 1739
If they win+16→ 1755
If they lose-16→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.05
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
55%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.91
46%
Strike defense
43%
0.24
Takedown avg.
5.03
25%
Takedown accuracy
6%
77%
Takedown defense
50%
0.24
Submission avg.
2.01

Trajectory

Payton TalbottRei Tsuruya
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
1 (9%)
Submission
5 (45%)
3 (27%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Rei Tsuruya59%
Payton Talbott 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rei Tsuruya a 59% favorite over Payton Talbott in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Payton Talbott's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1742 vs 1739), separated by just 3 points.

Payton Talbott enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Payton Talbott finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rei Tsuruya 82%.

Payton Talbott carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.