Pedro Ribeiro vs Tom Aaron
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record5-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
-ReachUnknown
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
CT Punch Fight TeamTeamFinney's MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1542
If they lose-24→ 1494
If they win+24→ 1535
If they lose-24→ 1487
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Pedro RibeiroTom Aaron
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pedro Ribeiro66%
Tom Aaron 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Pedro Ribeiro a 66% favorite over Tom Aaron in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1518 vs 1511), separated by just 7 points.
Tom Aaron 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.