Combat Edge Intelligence

Pete Williams vs Ricco Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record54-27-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
TBDReachTBD
225 lbsWeight225 lbs
Lion's DenTeamAmerican Fight Club

What's at stake

Pete Williams is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ricco Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Pete WilliamsNow 1632
If they win+14→ 1646
If they lose-18→ 1614
Ricco RodriguezNow 1590
If they win+13→ 1603
If they lose-11→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.61
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
63%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.15
40%
Strike defense
61%
1.84
Takedown avg.
2.30
40%
Takedown accuracy
39%
17%
Takedown defense
41%
0.92
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Pete WilliamsRicco Rodriguez
1600165020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
17 (31%)
4 (33%)
Submission
25 (46%)
2 (17%)
Decision
12 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Pete Williams60%
Ricco Rodriguez 40%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Pete Williams a 60% favorite over Ricco Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Pete Williams holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1632 to 1590, a 42-point edge.

Pete Williams enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ricco Rodriguez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Pete Williams finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Ricco Rodriguez 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.